Seasonal forecasts from NOAA, Colorado State University, and Tropical Storm Risk — updated automatically as new outlooks are released. The 2026 Atlantic season officially begins June 1, 2026.
The 2026 TSR forecast of null named storms would be the quietest Atlantic season since 2022, driven primarily by the anticipated El Niño pattern.
Major hurricanes are Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale (winds ≥ 111 mph).
NOAA gives a 59% chance of El Niño conditions developing by August–October 2026. El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms. A moderate El Niño could suppress activity significantly.
Sea surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic remain warmer than average — a legacy of the record-warm 2023–2025 period. Warm SSTs provide the fuel that intensifies tropical systems.
The La Niña conditions that fueled the hyperactive 2020–2024 period are dissipating. As La Niña weakens and El Niño potentially develops, the atmospheric pattern becomes increasingly hostile to Atlantic hurricane formation.
Saharan dust outbreaks suppress Atlantic storm development by reducing moisture and increasing stability. The intensity of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in summer 2026 will be a key real-time factor to watch.
El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño years, the jet stream shifts southward and increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic — the difference in wind speed and direction between the upper and lower atmosphere. High wind shear literally tears developing tropical systems apart before they can organize into hurricanes.
NOAA currently gives a 59% probability of El Niño conditions developing by August–October 2026 — the peak of hurricane season. If a moderate-to-strong El Niño materializes, it could suppress Atlantic activity significantly, similar to the quiet 2013 and 2014 seasons. However, the exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures provide a counterbalancing fuel source, creating significant forecast uncertainty.
The 2026 name list is the same rotation used in 2020, with Leah replacing Laura (retired after the catastrophic 2020 Gulf Coast landfall). Names are assigned in alphabetical order as storms form.
If all 21 names are used, the WMO supplemental list continues with Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn...
Seasonal hurricane forecasts predict the total number of storms in a season — they cannot predict where individual storms will make landfall. A below-average season can still produce a catastrophic storm (e.g., 2004 and 2005 both had major Florida landfalls). Conversely, an above-average season can pass with no US landfalls. The only reliable way to know your personal risk is through real-time tracking as storms develop.